Cotton (CTY00, Cash Index): The cotton market remains in a major (long-term) sideways-to-down trend. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors remain on the sidelines.
Coffee (KCY00, Cash Index): The Index still looks to be in a major downtrend based on an Elliott Wave 3-wave downtrend pattern. The market would be viewed as in Wave C (third wave) meaning a move below the Wave A low of 308.50 from July 2025 is expected. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors could be short the market, possibly from the September 2025 close of 387.99. The Index closed January at 365.02, down 2.46 for the month.
Cocoa (CCY00, Cash Index): The Index extended its major downtrend to a low of 4,146 during January before closing at 4,200, down 1,843 (30.5%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely holding short positions, looking for a bullish reversal pattern.
Sugar (SBY00, Cash Index): After extending its major downtrend to a low of 15.20 during November, the Index completed another bullish spike reversal by closing at 15.21, up 0.79 for the month. Once again, the Index looks to have moved into a major uptrend, though it has recently struggled finding follow-through buying interest. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors might’ve gone long near the November settlement of 15.21 with sell stops below the November low of 14.12. The Index hit a low of 14.26 during January before closing on that mark, down 0.69 (4.6%) for the month.
Orange Juice (OJY00, Cash Index): It’s possible the Index completed a bullish 2-month reversal at the end of December. If so, then. the major trend would be considered up. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors may have covered previous short positions at the end of December. As for going long, they may be waiting for a closer test of the November low of 137.55. The Index closed January at 211.10, up 1.10 for the month.
