The usually slow moving US 30-year T-bond futures market saw its major (long-term) downtrend accelerate during February, falling to a low of 157-23 (on a 32 point scale) before rallying to close at 160-24. Recall from previous discussions the futures market shows bond prices, with the 30-year hitting its lower mark since January 2020, while long-term yields climbed to a close out the month at 2.152% after climbing above 2.3% during the last week of February. The next downside target is 154-10, the 61.8% retracement level of the previous major uptrend from 136-16 (October 2018) through the high of 183-06* (August 2020). Also note this would be a test of previous lows of 155-10 and 155-05 from December 2019 and January 2020. Monthly stochasitcs are slowly working toward the oversold level of 20%, a move that would set the stage for a bullish crossover. The last time one of these bullish signals was established was April 2017. On the other hand, the most recent bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% occurred at the end of September 2019.
*For now I continue to discount the spike move from March 2020 when financial markets went haywire as the Covid pandemic spread around the globe.