Based on my end of the month calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year averages for the cmdty National Price Indexes for SRW, HRS, and HRW, domestic wheat stocks-to-use at the end of March continued to decrease. The combined cash price index came in at $5.09, a price that correlates to an all wheat stocks-to-use of 40.9%. The end of February saw the cash index at $5.01, correlating to a stocks-to-use calculation of 41.5%. With two months remaining in the 2020-2021 marketing year, US wheat remains o pace to have the tightest ending stocks-to-use (es/u) situation since the 2014-2015 marketing year had an average cash price of $5.48 implying es/u of 37.3%. Keep in mind the 2021-2022 forward curves for Kansas City (HRW) and Minneapolis (HRS) are neutral while Chicago (SRW) is bullish, indicating we could start to see wheat fundamentals stabilize before the next round of supplies arrive with this summer’s harvest.
