At the midpoint of the 2020-2021 marketing year for wheat, particularly the winter wheat markets of Kansas City (HRW) and Chicago (SRW), we see the daily average of the three major cmdty National Wheat Price Indexes calculated at $4.70 on November 30. Based on my correlation analysis (similar to what I posted in corn, with a 100% correlation between price and ending stocks-to-use), the $4.70 implies stocks-to-use of 44.7%. The average cash price increased 10 cents over the month of November, implying a decrease in stocks-to-use from 45.8% the the new 44.7% estimate. Recall from its latest round of Supply and Demand reports, USDA’s estimates resulted in a 2020-2021 ending stocks-to-use calculation of 41.7%. My analysis at the end of the 2019-2020 marketing year, as this past May came to a close, showed all wheat ending stocks-to-use of 47.3%. The bottom line is the US wheat supply and demand situation continues to tighten as we work our way through the 2020-2021 marketing year.