US Corn Monthly Stocks-to-Use

2021-05-01T14:17:20-05:00May 1st, 2021|Supply and Demand|

My calculation of US corn stocks-to-use continued to tighten at the end of April, with the 2020-2021 marketing year daily average price for the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) coming in at $4.59 as compared to the previous month’s $4.38. Based on my correlation study dating back through the 2010-2011 marketing year, the end of April cash price implies stocks-to-use of 10.6% as compared to the end of March 11.0% and the August 2020 (end of the 2019-2020 marketing year) figure of 12.8% (based on a marketing year average cash price of $3.35). Through 8 months of the 2020-2021 marketing year, the NCPI is starting to accelerate higher meaning available demand is staying firm and available supples are getting harder to come by. Regarding this, the NCPI was calculated at $6.89 Friday, April 30, $2.30 above the marketing year daily average. This indicates the available stocks-to-use situation could be far tighter than what is implied by the marketing year average. Historically, the 2020-2021 marketing year continues to close in on what was posted at the end of the 2007-2008 marketing year, $4.77 and 10.4% respectively. It’s also interesting to note USDA’s latest supply and demand guesses resulted in an ending stocks-to-use of 9.2%, equal to what it estimated at the end of the 2013-2014 marketing year. Recall 2013-2014 is notable for being the last time USDA underestimated ending stocks-to-use, with my calculation coming in at 11.3% (see second chart attached to online version).

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