My calculation of US corn stocks-to-use continued to tighten at the end of May with the 2020-2021 marketing year daily average price for the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) coming in at $4.83 as compared to the previous month’s $4.59. Based on my correlation study dating back through the 2010-2011 marketing year, the end of May calculation implies stocks-to-use of 10.3% as compared to the end of April 10.6% and the August 2020 (end of the 2019-2020 marketing year) figure of 12.8% (based on a marketing year average cash price of $3.35). After three quarters of the marketing year, the average cash price for 2020-2021 has now surpassed the $4.77 registered over the course of 2007-2008 when my calculation for ending stocks-to-use came in at 10.4%. Of the three stocks-to-use charts I post each month, corn’s shows the most consistent month-to-month decreases since September 2020. This indicates there has been steady demand over the course of the 2020-2021 marketing year that continues to chew through available supplies.
