One of the most talked about aspects of this past Wednesday’s USDA Quarterly Stocks report was the government’s “misplacing” of roughly 260 mb from its September Supply and Demand report, released 3 weeks prior, with the September 1 stocks on hand figure coming in at 1.995 bb. While we don’t know what USDA’s “final” 2019-2020 ending stocks-to-use figure will be until we see how its “revises” its supply and demand numbers, the bottom line is it will likely get closer to what I’ve been saying thought the 2019-2020 marketing year. A look at this chart shows my estimates of monthly stocks-to-use (red columns), based on analysis of the marketing year daily average price of the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price, green line), ranged from a low of 12.2% (December through February) to a high of 12.75% at the end of August. The latter saw the marketing year average of the NCPI come in at $3.35. With the first month of the 2020-2021 now passed, the NCPI edged down during September to an average of $3.34 implying a slight tick up in monthly stocks-to-use to 12.8%. This isn’t overly surprising given harvest was rolling along over the latter part of the month, putting more available stocks in storage. If we go back a year and look at the decline from September through December, the fact the 2019 harvest was nowhere near as large as reported becomes clear. It will be interesting to see how this chart develops over the 2020-2021 marketing year, and what it says about the 2020 crop.