With one month remaining in the 2020-2021 US soybean marketing year, the daily average price for the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) at the end of July was $12.79. Using the correlation between cash price and ending stocks-to-use back through the 2013-2014 marketing year, this put the end of July available stocks-to-use calculation at 0.2% (neon green marker). The 2020-2021 marketing year continues to draw closer to the record tight 2013-2014 marketing year with an average daily cash price of $13.18 and an ending stocks-to-use calculation of 0.1% (gold marker). With the NCPI calculated at $13.8735 on Friday, July 30, it is likely the marketing year average increases again when the marketing year comes to an end next month.
As for the soybean market’s cost of carry table, futures spreads are basically inverted as far out as one wants to look. The bottom line is soybean fundamentals are long-term bullish, and have been for the better part of a year.