In its December round of Supply and Demand reports USDA left US corn 2020-2021 ending stocks at 1.702 bb, unchanged from its November estimate. In fact, it looks like USDA’s corn economists have already headed home for the holidays with no changes made in any of the supply and demand categories. In all seriousness, this isn’t overly surprising or unusual for the December round of reports. USDA’s ending stocks estimate combined with unchanged total demand of 14.825 bb left its ending stocks-to-use calculation at 11.5% (red column), still running below my end of November calculation of 12.1% (blue column) based on analysis of the cmdty National Corn Price Index (weighted national average cash price). USDA’s demand estimate continue to interest me:

  • Feed demand, left unchanged at 5.7 bb, remains 2% less than USDA’s “final” 2019-2020 figure of 5.827 bb despite cattle on feed still running 1% ahead of year ago levels as of November 1
    • Both September 1 and October 1 reportedly had 4% increases from the previous year
  • 2020-2021 ethanol demand for corn held at 5.05 bb, up 4% from 2019-2020’s “final” 4.852 bb, still possible if the US economy improves in 2021 and we see more driving.
  • USDA’s export demand estimate was left at 2.650 bb versus the latest weekly update that shows a pace projection of 2.169 bb, a 480 mb difference.