Corn Cash Index: The National Corn Price Index (ICY00, national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of $4.2958 during November before rallying to close out the month. Monthly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% at the end of October indicating the major trend was set to turn up. Theoretical Positions: If cash needs were bought at the end of May, the previous suggestion was to buy put options as protection, establishing a synthetic call. Otherwise, continue to buy cash corn as needed only until a clear bullish reversal is completed.
December Corn: Dec23 went into delivery at the end of November and will go off the board on December 14. This means Dec24 will be on the continuous chart by the time we get to the end of the month.
Theoretical Positions:
- Hedgers:
- Dec23 hedges were likely rolled to March24 at a strong carry.
- Dec24 and Dec25 hedges established during 2022 continue to be held. We will need to be careful if Dec24 completes a long-term bullish reversal on the continuous monthly chart.
Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) looks to be in a major sideways trend, in position to turn up over the coming months. Monthly stochastics have completed a series of bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, most recently at the end of October. Theoretical Positions: It’s likely there were no long-term positions in place at the end of November. Buy stops would be placed above the previous 4-month high of $23.24 (October).
