Brent crude (QA) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend, though the spot-month did consolidate during June. Monthly stochastics completed another bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, a signal the major trend could soon turn up. Theoretical Positions: Short from the June 2022 close of $114.81 possibly. If not, shorts could’ve been established at the July close of $103.97 after the spot-month contract posted a new 4-month low below $96.95. Stops would be above the previous 4-month high of $87.49 (April 2023) with new longs established at the same time.
WTI crude oil (CL) still looks to be in a major downtrend, though we need to watch this monthly chart closely as the spot-month contract may have established a double-bottom between $64.12 and $63.57 durning May. If so, the interim high of $83.53 is key with a move above that mark then projecting an extension to $104.24. Theoretical Positions: Long positions established near the new 4-month high of $83.34 during April would’ve been stopped out with the new 4-month low of $64.11 during May (loss of $19.23). There are no positions at this time.
Distillates (HO, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) looks set to roll into a major uptrend, though no clear reversal pattern has been completed as of the end of June. Monthly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% at the end of May, a signal the major trend was set to turn up. Theoretical Positions: None at this time. However, if traders are wanting to go long near the June close of $2.4482, sell stops would be placed below the May low of $2.1500.
RBOB gasoline (RB) remains in a major 5-wave uptrend with the next upside target area between $2.9011 and $3.1732. Theoretical Positions: New longs could’ve been established near the December 2022 close of $2.4783, based on a bullish spike reversal. Sell stops would be moved to below the 4-month low of $2.25.
Natural gas (NG) still looks to be in a major sideways trend, though nearing a bullish breakout. The spot-month contract completed a bullish spike reversal at the end of April. Theoretical Positions: With monthly stochastics well below the oversold level of 20%, the logical move is to see a bullish breakout. it’s possible traders established long futures positions near the April close of $2.41. If so, sell stops would be below the April low of $1.946. Others may be waiting for a move to a new 4-month high beyond $3.027 before going long.
