Live Cattle (Cash Index): Technically, the cash market remains in a major (long-term) uptrend as it jumped to a new high of $190.00 early in June. However, by the end of the month it was back to $174.00. While this didn’t complete a bearish reversal, with the index finishing May at $170.85, traders could apply the Horseshoe Proximity and say close is close enough. Theoretical Positions: Traders would likely be long the market with a stop below the previous 4-month low of $163.00 (February 2023). Hedgers have likely continued to roll put options up.
Feeder Cattle (Cash Index): The cash market extended its major uptrend to a high of $232.75 on the last day of June. The market remains sharply overbought, with monthly stochastics near 100%. Theoretical Positions: Traders are likely still long the market. Sell stops would be placed below the previous 4-month low of $183.04 (March 2023). As with live cattle, hedgers have likely continued to roll put options up.
Lean Hogs (Cash Index): The cash index extended its major uptrend to a high of $93.42, its highest level since November 2022. The next upside target is near $96.72, the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $122.25 (August 2022) through the low of $71.18 (April 2023). Theoretical Positions: Traders might’ve gone long the market near $80.02 on the move to a new 4-month high, or at the May settlement of $80.08.