Brent crude (QA) is in a major (long-term) uptrend after posting a new 4-month high of $88.10 during August. The initial upside target is near $94.50, the 38.2% rertracment level of the previous major downtrend from $137.00 (March 2022) through the low of $68.20 (May 2023). Theoretical Positions: Previous short futures were covered and new longs established as the spot-month contract took out the previous 4-month high of $87.49 during August. This has longs at roughly $87.50, with sell stops below the previous 4-month low of $68.20 (May 2023).
WTI crude oil (CL) is in a major (long-term) uptrend after posting a new 4-month high of $84.89 during August. The initial upside target is near $89.14, the 38.2% rertracment level of the previous major downtrend from $130.50 (March 2022) through the low of $63.57 (May 2023). Theoretical Positions: Long positions were established on the move above the previous 4-month high of $83.53 (April 2023). This has longs at roughly $83.54 with sell stops below the previous 4-month low of $63.57 (May 2023).
Distillates (HO, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) remains in a major uptrend after hitting a new 4-month high during July. The August high of $3.3374 was a test of the initial upside target near $3.8234, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.2217 (April 2022) through the low of $2.15 (May 2023). The 50% retracement level is up near $3.6859. Theoretical Positions: Traders could be long just above the previous 4-month high of $2.9198. Additionally, those needing to cover diesel needs could do so near the July close of $2.9855 or wait for a Wave 2 selloff.
RBOB gasoline (RB) remains in a major 5-wave uptrend with the upside target area between $2.9011 and $3.1732. The spot-month contract hit a high of $2.9960 during July before consolidating during August. Theoretical Positions: New longs could’ve been established near the December 2022 close of $2.4783, based on a bullish spike reversal. Sell stops would be below the 4-month low of $2.25 (May 2023).
Natural gas (NG) looks to have moved into a major uptrend during August as it posted a new 4-month high beyond $2.878. Theoretical Positions: With monthly stochastics well below the oversold level of 20%, the logical move is to see a bullish breakout. It’s possible traders established long futures positions near the April close of $2.41. If so, sell stops would be below the April low of $1.946. Additional longs might have been established during August with the move to a new 4-month high. Sell stops would be below the previous 4-month low of $2.031 (May 2023).
