The HRW Wheat Price Index (IHY00, national average cash price) completed a bullish spike reversal during November confirming a new major (long-term) uptrend. The initial upside target is near $8.29, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend near $13.15 (May 2022) through the November 2023 low near $5.29. The index extended its new uptrend to a high of $6.0728 during December before closing at $5.8453. The index spent most of January under pressure, posting a low of $5.3885. Theoretical Positions: While 2023 cash bushels have likely been sold, traders could look at going long the market near the November settlement. If so, stops would be placed below the November low of $5.29.
The SRW Wheat Price Index (IWY00) remains in major uptrend after posting a bullish outside range during November. Confirmation during February would be a new 4-month high beyond $5.7083 posted during December. The index closed January at $5.3954, down 23.26 cents for the month. Theoretical Positions: All 2023 cash bushels should be sold. Traders might’ve bought the market near the November settlement of $5.20 with a stop below the November low near $4.6065.
The HRS Wheat Price Index (IPY) remains in a major sideways trend with support at the long-term low of $6.4131 and the previous 4-month high of $7.0303 (December 2023). Theoretical Positions: Cash bushels were sold at harvest despite monthly stochastics sitting well below the oversold level of 20%. There are no new positions until the cash index breaks out.
The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) completed a bullish spike reversal during November, confirming a new major uptrend is in place. Since then, WEAT has been consolidating above the November low of $5.38 and the December high of $5.69. Theoretical Positions: Traders went long the market near November’s settlement of $5.75 with a stop below the November low of $5.38. The initial long-term upside target is $8.20, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $12.75 (March 2022) through the November low.
