The HRW Wheat Price Index (IHY00, national average cash price) completed another bullish spike reversal during March, again indicating the major (long-term) trend has turned up. Initial resistance is at the 4-month high of $6.0728 (December 2023). Theoretical Positions: While 2023 cash bushels have likely been sold, traders could look at going long the market near the March settlement of $5.3819. If so, sell stops would be placed below the March low of $5.0960.
The SRW Wheat Price Index (IWY00) remains in major uptrend after posting a bullish outside range during November. The selloff seen from January through March looks to be Wave 2 of the 5-wave uptrend pattern, with the March low of $4.7437 roughly an 80% retracement of Wave 1. A deep retracement during Wave 2 is common. Theoretical Positions: All 2023 cash bushels should be sold. Traders might’ve bought the market near the November settlement of $5.20 with longs added near the March settlement of $5.0579.
The HRS Wheat Price Index (IPY00) extended its major downtrend to a low of $6.2298 during March before closing at $6.2406, down 18.27 cents for the month. This puts the market in position for a bullish reversal during April. Theoretical Positions: Cash bushels were sold at harvest despite monthly stochastics sitting well below the oversold level of 20%. There are no new positions until the cash index completes a bullish reversal.
The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) completed a bullish spike reversal during March, indicating the major trend had turned up at the end of the month. Initial resistance would be the previous 4-month high of $6.14 from December 2023. Theoretical Positions: Traders could reestablish long futures positions near the March settlement of $5.41, with sell stops below the March low of $5.02.
