The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend. However, the HWPI extended its rally off the August low near $7.62, a mark that was part of a bullish spike reversal. This looks to be a Wave B (second wave) rally within the HWPI’s major 3-wave downtrend pattern, and with Kansas City futures spreads indicating some of the most bullish fundamentals in the commodity complex the target area is up between $10.42 and $11.08. This move could possibly extend to near $12.02.
The Barchart National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI) is also in a major (long-term) downtrend with the ongoing rally off its August low near $6.6750 looking to be a Wave B. If so, the upside target area is between $8.80 and $9.4550. Fundamentally Chicago futures spreads are not as bullish as Kansas City or Minneapolis, meaning the rally by the SWPI could be muted.
The Barchart National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI) posted a solid rally during September, finishing the month near $9.08 after posting an August low near $7.8350. As with winter markets, this looks to be Wave B of the market’s major 3-wave downtrend pattern, and given Minneapolis futures spreads are bullish the upside target is between $10.65 and $11.31. There is a chance this Wave B could extend to near $12.26.