Cotton (CTY00, Cash Index): The Index completed a bullish key reversal during February meaning the major (long-term) trend turned up. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors could look to buy (futures, ETFs) near the February settlement.
Coffee (KCY00, Cash Index): The Index still looks to be in a major downtrend based on an Elliott Wave 3-wave downtrend pattern. The market would be viewed as in Wave C (third wave) meaning a move below the Wave A low of 308.50 from July 2025 is expected. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors could be short the market, possibly from the September 2025 close of 387.99. The Index closed February at 324.51, down 40.51 (11.1%) for the month.
Cocoa (CCY00, Cash Index): The Index extended its major downtrend to a low of 2,798 during February before closing at 2,798, down 1,402 (33.4%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely holding short positions, looking for a bullish reversal pattern.
Sugar (SBY00, Cash Index): The Index extended its major downtrend to a low of 13.80 before closing February at 13.92, down 0.34 for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely on the sidelines.
Orange Juice (OJY00, Cash Index): If the Index completed a bullish 2-month reversal at the end of December, and the January high of 240.00 was a Wave 1 peak, then the February low of 155.40 could be viewed as a Wave 2 low until proven otherwise. Given this, the Index would be expected to take out its Wave 1 high over the coming months. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors may have covered previous short positions at the end of December. New longs could be established near the February close of 183.25 with sell stops below the November low of 137.55.
