US Corn Monthly Stocks-to-Use

2021-04-02T06:48:05-05:00April 2nd, 2021|Supply and Demand|

My calculation of US corn stocks-to-use continued to tighten at the end of March, with the 2020-2021 marketing year daily average price for the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) coming in at $4.38 as compared to the previous month’s $4.21. Based on my correlation study dating back through the 2010-2011 marketing year, the end of March cash price implies stocks-to-use of 11% as compared to the end of February’s 11.3% and the August 2020 (end of the 2019-2020 marketing year) figure of 12.8% (based on a marketing year average cash price of $3.35). What we’ve seen during the 2020-20212 marketing year is a consistent increase in price implying a decrease in stocks-to-use since the heaviest harvest month of September 2020. As for long-term, the 2020-2021 correlation falls between what we saw at the end fo the 2013-2014 marketing year ($4.21, 11.3%) and 2007-2008 ($4.77, 10.4%, I had to expand my data for this one). The three drought years from 2010-11 through 2012-13 remain the bullish benchmark.

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