The cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) extended the major (long-term) uptrend on its monthly chart during September, following through on the bullish outside range posted during August. As discussed last month (September 5, “I Like Pie”), there was an outside chance of testing its previous major high of $9.98 (March 2018), with the NSPI hitting $9.89 on September 18 before falling back to $9.29 (September 29). Of course this set the stage for the explosive rally seen Wednesday (September 30) to close out the month.
While there is no long-term sell signal for the NSPI as we start October, not monthly stochastics closed September above the overbought level of 80%. This has the momentum study in position for a bearish crossover at some point. Technically, if the NSPI can clear the 2018 high the next upside target would be June 2016 high $11.10. Given the continued lack of carry in futures spreads the fundamentals of the market remain bullish, most likely a reflection of initial dry spring conditions in Brazil.