Distillates (heating oil, jet fuel, diesel fuel, etc.), also known as New York Harbor ULSD (ultra-low sulfur diesel), finally looks to be nearing a major (long-term) top on its continuous monthly chart. As August came to an end the spot-month contract was priced at $2.1302, down 6.54 cents from July’s settlement. This was enough for monthly stochastics to establish a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%, a signal I look for the major trend of the market is set to turn down. However, activity during the month of August did not create a reversal pattern as the high of $2.1947 was below the July peak of $2.2101 and the close was well off the monthly low of $1.8965. The most likely reversal pattern as we head into September now looks to be a new 4-month low below the August mark. Fundamentally the market remains bullish, as indicated by its forward curve being inverted (in backwardation).
