Brent crude (QA): I don’t see a clear pattern on the market’s long-term monthly chart. The forward curve remains in backwardation indicating the long-term fundamental outlook is bullish. Theoretical Positions: Investors could still be on the sidelines waiting for a clear breakout.
WTI crude oil (CL): Despite the sold rally by the spot-month contract during January, I still see the market in a major sideways trend. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely on the sidelines.
Distillates (HO, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.): The market remains in a major sideways trend between $2.74 (high from June 2025) and $1.9338 (May 2025). The spot-month contract closed January at $2.5330, up 41.15 cents (19.4%). Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely on the sidelines.
RBOB gasoline (RB): From a technical point of view the spot-month contract completed a bullish key reversal during January, confirming a move to a new major uptrend. Theoretical Positions: Investors could be long the market near the January settlement of $1.9422 with sell stops below the January low of $1.6656.
Natural Gas (NG): Think about this for a moment: The natural gas market, aka The Widow Maker, has been showing clearer technical patterns than the rest of the Energies sector for the past number of years. That alone is reason to stay out of Energies. Be that as it may, and setting aside the January 2026 spike high of $7.439 tied to Winter Storm Fern, it could be argued the spot-month contract posted a Wave 5 high during December 2025 as part of a key bearish reversal. If so, then the market would be considered in a major downtrend, from a technical point of view. Theoretical Positions: I would think investors would be on the sidelines, but it is hard to say.
