Brent crude (QA): Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investors went long the market during January or February on bullish technical breakouts. The market completed another bullish outside range during July before closing August at $90.49, up $2.56 for the month.
WTI crude oil (CL): It’s possible investors went long the market during January or February on bullish technical breakouts. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish. The market completed a bullish spike reversal during July before closing August at $85.76, up $1.09 for the month.
Distillates (HO, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.): Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors and hedgers may have gone long during February, or covered cash needs, when the spot-month contract moved above the previous high of $2.74 from June 2025. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish. The spot-month contract closed August at $4,4106, up 31.51 cents (7.7%) for the month.
RBOB gasoline (RB): After completing what looks to be a bearish 2-month reversal during May, the spot-month contract extended its major downtrend to a low of $2.7975 during August before closing at $3.0770, down 3,72 cents (1.2%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors long the market near the January 2026 settlement of $1.9422 may have liquidated those positions at May settlement of $3.0344. New short positions may have been established at the same price. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish. Those holding short positions need to be careful.
Natural Gas (NG): It could still be argued the spot-month contract posted a Wave 5 high during December 2025 as part of a key bearish reversal. If so, then the market would be considered in a major downtrend, from a technical point of view. However, the market’s monthly stochastics indicate it is oversold long-term, possibly bringing in new algorithm buying. A Wave 8 (end of 3-wave downtrend) low is expected below the Wave 6 price of $2.495. The spot-month contract hit a low of $2.616 during August before closing at $2.935, up 18.8 cents (6.8%) for the month and completing a bullish spike reversal. Theoretical Positions: Investors might go long natural gas near the August close based on the completion of a bullish spike reversal.
