Gold (Cash Index): Despite the rally in cash gold during August, the Index remains in a major (long-term) downtrend that began with a bearish outside monthly range during March. The Index closed August at $4,449.03, up $404.27 (10%) for the month. Central banks from around the world continue to buy, providing support to the cash market. Theoretical Positions: Investors would’ve shorted the market at the March close of $4,677.07 based on the completion of a bearish outside month. Additional short positions could’ve been established as the index took out its previous 4-month low of $4,100.32, putting the average short near $4,388.69.
Silver (Cash Index): The Cash Silver Index confirmed a major downtrend at the end of March before posting a new 4-month low during June. The Index rallied during August before closing at $66.5543, up $8.9213 cents (15.5%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors might’ve sold the market near the March settlement of $75.13 based on the completion of a bearish outside month with additional shorts established at the new 4-month low of $61.03, putting the average short position at roughly $68.08.
Copper (Cash Index): The copper Index hit a new all-time high of $6.7280 during August before closing at $6.5880, up 12.65 cents (2.0%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors may have established long positions a number of times over the past few years. These positions could’ve been liquidated near the June settlement of $6.1955 with new short positions established. Investors may have moved to the sidelines during August.
Palladium (Spot futures): Despite the higher monthly close, palladium still looks to be in a major downtrend. However, monthly stochastics are nearing the oversold level of 20% while the spot-month futures contract finds support near the 61.8% retracement level of $1,240.33. Theoretical Positions: Investors might be looking for an opportunity to go long the market.
Platinum (Spot futures): Despite the higher monthly close, the market still looks to be in a major downtrend. However, platinum seems to be finding support near the 50% retracement level of its previous uptrend at $1,596.00. Monthly stochastics above the oversold level of 20% indicate there is still room to the downside, with the 61.8% retracement level at $1,414.40. Theoretical Positions: Investors may have established long positions a number of times since the June 2025 breakout monthly close of $1,334.00. These positions might’ve been stopped out and gone short at the May settlement of $1,911.10.
