The cmdty National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI, weighted national average cash price) continued its selloff during December. This extended the market’s major (long-term) downtrend that began with the completion of a bearish 2-month reversal at the end of November. Initial support is the previous 4-month low of $8.2119 from September, with the downside target area well below that between $7.8641 and $7.1515. Given the futures market’s fundamentals remain bullish, as indicated by inverted futures spreads, this major downtrend could be limited to the upper-end of its downside range. However, fundamentals can change so we need to keep an eye on both spreads and national average basis the weeks and months ahead.
