The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) uptrend, despite the sharp selloff seen during April. The S&P came up just short of completing a bearish key reversal with the April high of 5,263.95 just below the March high of 5,264.85. Some might argue the $INX completed a bearish 2-month reversal, though I would classify the late rally off the monthly low of 4,953.56 enough to nullify that pattern as well. Theoretical Positions: Long from the October 2022 close of 3,871.98. Sell stop below the previous 4-month low of 4,682.11 (January 2024).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) remains in a major uptrend, despite April’s sharp selloff. The Dow came up just short of completing a bearish key reversal with the April high of 39,815.00 below the March high of 39,889.05. Theoretical Positions: Long from at least the October 2022 settlement of 32,732.95 if not the breakout of the September high at 32,504.04. Sell stops would be below the previous 4-month low of 37,122.95 (January 2024).
The Nasdaq ($NASX) remains in a major uptrend despite the selloff seen during April. Theoretical Positions: Long from the October 2022 close of 10,988.15. Sell stops would be placed below the previous 4-month low of 14,477.57 (January 2024).
The US 10-year T-note (ZN) remains in a major uptrend with the April low of 107-040 a test of the downside target of 107-016. The latter is the 78.6% retracement level of the Wave 1 rally from 105-105 (October 2023) through the high of 113-120 (December 2023). Wave 2 selloffs tend to see a deep retracement of Wave 1, often reaching near 80%. Theoretical Positions: New longs might’ve been established near the November 2023 close of 109-150. Additional positions could be established near the April close of 107-140, creating an average position of 108-145. Sell stops would be placed below the October 2023 low of 105-105.
