Based on my end of the month calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year averages for the cmdty National Price Indexes for SRW, HRS, and HRW, domestic wheat stocks-to-use at the end of April continued to decrease. The combined cash price index came in at $5.17, a price that correlates to an all wheat stocks-to-use of 40.1%. The end of March saw the cash index at $5.09, correlating to a stocks-to-use calculation of 40.9%. With one month remaining in the 2020-2021 marketing year, US wheat remains on pace to have the tightest ending stocks-to-use (es/u) situation since the 2014-2015 marketing year had an average cash price of $5.48 implying es/u of 37.3%. Keep in mind the 2021-2022 forward curves for all three markets have moved into bullish territory, according to their individual cost of carry tables.
