The common theme of the Currencies sector this month is volatility tied to elections around the world and global central bank actions to deal with inflation caused by failed trade policies and unnecessary wars. Given this, many of the technical charts have been skewed.
The US dollar index ($DXY): The Index extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of 102.94 before settling at 101.88, up 0.42% for the month. This uptrend was confirmed as the greenback posted a new 4-month high during March 2026. The Index should continue to firm on rising US interest rates. Theoretical Positions: Investors would’ve gone long the Index this past March at the new 4-month high near 100.40.
The Euro (^EURUSD): The euro extended its major downtrend to a low of 1.11053 before closing at 1.11588, down 1.51% for the month. The 50% retracement level of the previous major uptrend is at 1.11291 meaning the euro tested this technical target, the finished the month above this level. It should be noted monthly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20% and in position for a bullish crossover, what would be a signal the major trend is set to turn up. Theoretical Positions: Investors are either short the euro near 1.14689 (March 2026) or near 1.14110 (June 2026). If short at both levels, the average position would be roughly 1.144.
The Euro/Canadian dollar (^EURCAD) spiked lower during October, falling to 1.55526 before closing at 1.55932, down 3.29% for the month. This took out the previous 4-month low of 1.60010. Theoretical Positions: Short positions could’ve been established near the October 2025 settlement of 1.61659 with additional positions below the December low of 1.60618. Additional sell orders may have been triggered below 1.60010, putting the average price at approximately 1.60762.
The Canadian dollar (^CADUSD) The loonie extended its major downtrend to a low of 0.69933 during October. However, the loonie then rallied to close at 0.71562, up 1.85% for the month. Technically, this completed a bullish spike reversal and possibly completed the 3-wave downtrend pattern. Theoretical Positions: Investors would’ve liquidated long positions from the close of February 2025 (0.69125), adding positions along the way as the loonie took out previous high marks, including January above the previous peak of 0.73854 from June 2025, below the previous 4-month low of 0.71604. New short positions would’ve been established at the same price. Additional sell orders could be placed below the previous 4-month low from this past June. Again, technically, investors would cover short positions and go long near the October settlement.
The Brazilian real (^BRLUSD) extended its major downtrend to a low of 0.18316 before closing at 0.18390, down 4.85% for the month. Again, we can see the volatility created by Brazil’s presidential election late in the month, but it did not change the major trend. Would I say the same thing if Bolsonaro had defeated Lula? I don’t know. Note the real took out its previous 4-month low ahead of the election, but not the May 2026 high when a bearish spike reversal was completed. Theoretical Positions: Investors long near the January 2025 settlement of 0.17188, based on a bullish 2-month reversal, would’ve liquidated those positions near the May settlement of 0.19785 locking in a gain of approximately 0.02597. New short positions were established at the same May settlement price. Additional sell orders would’ve been filled below the previous 4-month low of 0.19060 from August, putting the average short at roughly 0.19420.
