The HRW Wheat Price Index (IHY00, national average cash price) completed a bullish spike reversal during November confirming a new major (long-term) uptrend. The initial upside target is near $8.29, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend near $13.15 (May 2022) through the November 2023 low near $5.29. The index extended its new uptrend to a high of $6.0728 during December before closing at $5.8453. Theoretical Positions: While 2023 cash bushels have likely been sold, traders could look at going long the market near the November settlement. If so, stops would be placed below the November low of $5.29.
The SRW Wheat Price Index (IWY00) also looks to have moved into a major uptrend as it posted a bullish outside range during November. Confirmation during January would be a new 4-month high beyond $5.7083 posted during December. The index closed last month at $5.6280. Theoretical Positions: All 2023 cash bushels should be sold. Traders might’ve bought the market near the November settlement of $5.20 with a stop below the November low near $4.6065.
The HRS Wheat Price Index (IPY) looks to be in the process of moving into a major uptrend, though no clear reversal pattern had been completed at the end of December. The previous 4-month high is $7.1372 with the index hitting $7.0303 during December before closing the month at $6.9313. Theoretical Positions: Cash bushels were sold at harvest despite monthly stochastics sitting well below the oversold level of 20%.
The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) completed a bullish spike reversal during November, confirming a new major uptrend is in place. WEAT then extended its move to a high of $6.14 during December, the new 4-month mark as we head into January. WEAT closed last month at $5.97. Theoretical Positions: Traders went long the market near November’s settlement of $5.75 with a stop below the November low of $5.38. The initial long-term upside target is $8.20, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $12.75 (March 2022) through the November low.
