Yes, tacking US Treasury markets can be about as exciting as watching paint dry, but they are still a key financial market. This past week saw television talking heads get excited as the 10-year yield climbed above 1.5%, only to finish the week under pressure and back below this mark. Treasuries can be a bit confusing as analysts jump back and forth between yield and price, often failing to point out the inverse relationship between the two. Nearby futures, shown on this chart, show long-term price trends. Given this, it looks like the 10-year T-note futures (ZN) have established a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend dating back to the bullish spike reversal from this past April that included the low of 130-255. Wave 1 moved from the April low to an August high of 135-140, before this month saw the ZN post a bearish spike reversal. This led to Wave 2 that might’ve concluded with the September low of 131-070. By definition, Wave 2 usually retraces “all or most of Wave 1.” That’s what the ZN looks to have done, meaning if it has moved into a Wave 3 rally it would be expected to take out the Wave 1 high from August. If that happens it would suggest yields are going lower again, and if yields come under pressure the US dollar index would be expected to weaken as well.