The HRW Wheat Price Index (IHY00, national average cash price) fell to a new low of $5.1286 during February, erasing the bullish spike reversal from November 2023 that included a low of $5.2903. However, the index did rally back above that mark to finish February $5.4097, raising the possibility of a characteristic bearish head-fake. Theoretical Positions: While 2023 cash bushels have likely been sold, traders could look at going long the market near the November settlement. If so, stops would be placed below the November low of $5.29. These stops were likely triggered during February, unless buyers were waiting for the monthly close.

The SRW Wheat Price Index (IWY00) remains in major uptrend after posting a bullish outside range during November. The selloff seen during January and February looks to be Wave 2 of the 5-wave uptrend pattern, with a Benjamin Franklin Fish Analogy (Like guests and fish, markets tend to stink after three days/weeks/months of moving against the trend) indicating the index could move lower during March as well. Theoretical Positions: All 2023 cash bushels should be sold. Traders might’ve bought the market near the November settlement of $5.20 with a stop below the October low near $4.6065.

The HRS Wheat Price Index (IPY) moved back into a major downtrend as it posted a new low of $6.2349 during February. However, it finished the month at $6.4233, back above the previous low of $6.4131 from September 2023. As always with wheat, this raises the question of a possible bearish head-fake. Theoretical Positions: Cash bushels were sold at harvest despite monthly stochastics sitting well below the oversold level of 20%. There are no new positions until the cash index breaks out.

The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) moved back into a major downtrend during February as it took out the previous low of $5.38 from November 2023. The all-time low is $4.83 from May 2019. Theoretical Positions: Traders were likely stopped out of long positions with the move below the November 2023 low. This means there would be no positions at this time.