That’s What Friends are For
Afternoon Summary: While there wasn’t much in the way of market moving news early this morning, a check of the headlines Tuesday afternoon – well – let me start with [...]
Afternoon Summary: While there wasn’t much in the way of market moving news early this morning, a check of the headlines Tuesday afternoon – well – let me start with [...]
Morning Summary: My initial look across the commodity complex landscape pre-dawn Tuesday resulted in a one-word response, “Typical”. As in the overnight session looked to be nothing more than a [...]
Afternoon Summary: How did the commodity complex follow last Friday’s historic session? Historic in the sense most markets saw some sort of frantic Friday activity, the frenzy heightened by USDA’s [...]
As I mentioned in the latest Weekly Analysis, the Dec26 minor (short-term) trend was in position to turn up after last Friday's selloff overshot secondary (intermediate-term) technical support. If a [...]
Morning Summary: Though it is hard to believe, the US president and I actually have something in common. Neither of us has been awarded a Nobel Peace Prize. The first [...]
While I continue to believe the weekly close is more important than the weekly open, given the headlines we saw late Friday (the US president buying diesel fuel from his [...]
I’ve started this Column a number of times over the past few weeks but continue to be interrupted by the latest actions and statements by the US president. The flurry [...]
The Soybean Meal market started its 2026-27 marketing year when the calendar page turned from September to October. As we see with its seasonal indexes, the first half of the [...]
The December 2026 Cotton contract continues to follow its seasonal tendencies relatively well. This sets the stage for what could be an interesting next couple weeks. Let's take a look [...]
Theoretical Positions End-Users may have gone long the futures market last winter near $2.2180. Investors may have also gone long near $2.2180. Fundamentally, diesel fuel remains bullish (see below). Trend [...]
Theoretical Positions Producers have likely been sellers in both cash and futures since mid-October 2025. National average basis remains strong but seasonally volatile (see Basis Analysis). Investors are likely long [...]
Theoretical Positions Producers have likely been sellers in both cash and futures. Investors are likely on the sidelines, waiting for a clear buy signal. Trend Analysis The November contract extended [...]
Theoretical Positions Producers Cash sales have likely been made and short hedges lifted, putting producers on the sidelines for now. Investors Investors who bought on the previous week's bullish spike [...]
Theoretical Positions Producers Most of 2026 production has likely been sold. Small sales of 2027 production were made during the previous uptrend. Investors Long December futures positions could’ve been liquidated [...]
Theoretical Positions Producers Most of 2026 production has likely been sold. Small sales of expected 2027 production were made during the previous uptrend. Hold off on additional sales for now. [...]
Theoretical Positions Producers Hold off on new sales of 2026 bushels, waiting to see if the December contract can find support near $6.8950. Investors Based on the completion of a [...]
Theoretical Positions Hedgers Cash sales of expected 2026 and 2027 production can continue to be made based on historically high Nov26 and Nov27 futures prices. Investors May have gone long [...]
Theoretical Positions End-Users May be buying on an as-needed basis at this time. Investors Have likely moved to the sidelines until a clear trend develops. TrendAnalysis The December futures contract [...]
Theoretical Positions End-Users Would still be long the cash market. No additional purchases should be made given the market looks to have rolled over into a downtrend (see below). Investors [...]
Theoretical Positions Hedgers: Remaining 2026 production could’ve been sold near the recent weekly close of 86.33 based on both trend and seasonal analysis (see below). Investors could’ve sold the December [...]
Theoretical Positions Producers Cash sales were made during the previous uptrend due to high price distribution Based on seasonal, price distribution, volatility, and long-term technical analysis: December $5.00 calls could’ve [...]
Theoretical Positions End Users Cash needs for the 2026-2027 marketing year (September 2026 through August 2027) might’ve been covered when the National Corn Index posted a new 4-week high weekly [...]