Weekly Analysis: Gold
Theoretical Positions: Traders are likely long cash, futures, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Trend: Up. As I wrote in Friday's Morning Commentary, "If I had to pin one analytical thought [...]
Weekly Analysis: WTI Crude Oil
Theoretical Positions: Traders are likely on the sidelines given the market’s contra-seasonal downtrend and continued backwardation of its forward curve (see below). Seasonal Analysis: Bearish Despite last week's higher close [...]
Weekly Analysis: Diesel Fuel
Theoretical Positions: There are no 2025 positions at this time. Seasonal Analysis: Bearish The spot-month contract closed Friday at $2.0664, up 7.32 cents for the week. The Commitments of Traders [...]
Weekly Analysis: Live Cattle
Theoretical Positions: Cash cattle can continue to be sold when ready. Seasonal Analysis: Bullish Jun25 extended its contra-seasonal uptrend to a new high weekly close of $214.65 last Friday A [...]
Weekly Analysis: Feeder Cattle
Theoretical Positions: Cash sales could continue to be made given the strength in futures, cash, and basis markets. Seasonal Analysis: Bullish The August 2025 issue remains in a strong seasonal [...]
Weekly Analysis: Lean Hogs
Theoretical Positions: Producers can continue to sell cash hogs when ready to take advantage of the recent contra-seasonal rally in futures. Seasonal Analysis: Bearish June lean hogs tend to trend [...]
Weekly Analysis: Wheat HRW
Theoretical Positions: Producers might’ve locked in a small part of expected 2025 production near the weekly close of $6.3375 (February 21) based on the completion of a bearish spike reversal [...]
Weekly Analysis: Wheat SRW
Theoretical Positions: The July issue could’ve been sold near the weekly close of $6.17 (February 21) based on a bearish spike reversal on the contract’s weekly chart. SRW wheat is [...]
Weekly Analysis: Wheat HRS
Theoretical Positions: Attention will be turning to opportunities in the new-crop market, starting with the September 2025 futures contract. The Sept25 issue closed Friday at $6.0650, down 16.0 cents for [...]
Weekly Analysis: Soybeans
Theoretical Positions: It’s possible some sales of Nov25 were made as the contract took out its previous 4-week low of $10.3725 (possible sale of $10.37). Producers are sitting on the [...]
Weekly Analysis: Soybean Meal
Theoretical Positions: End users looking to get coverage in place could’ve bought December 2024 futures near the weekly close of $315.70 (week of August 26). Winter quarter (remaining Dec, Jan [...]
Weekly Analysis: Canola
Theoretical Positions: Initial sales of new-crop might’ve been made near the weekly close of $641.50 based on the completion of a bearish 2-week reversal. Additional sales could be made near [...]
Weekly Analysis: Cotton
Theoretical Positions: Producers: Dec tends tor rally from the last weekly close of March through the fourth weekly close of May (see below) Some expected 2025 production could've been locked [...]
Weekly Analysis: Corn (New-Crop)
Theoretical Positions: Investors (See Monthly Analysis) One change from last week: Short short-dated new-crop June $4.40 put options were sold for 6.0 cents (Tuesday, May 6) An open order to [...]
Weekly Analysis: Corn (Old-Crop)
Theoretical Positions: End-users: Fall 2024 (roughly 3 months, or September/October/November) needs could’ve been covered near the weekly settlement for the National Corn Index of $3.6850 (Dec24 futures at $4.01) the [...]
Weekly Analysis: Gold
Theoretical Positions: Traders are likely long cash, futures, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). While funds continue to liquidate their net-long futures position, hedgers (both long and short) will continue to [...]
Weekly Analysis: WTI Crude Oil
Theoretical Positions: Traders are likely on the sidelines given the market’s contra-seasonal downtrend and continued backwardation of its forward curve (see below). Seasonal Analysis: Bearish The spot-month contract closed Friday [...]
Weekly Analysis: Diesel Fuel
Theoretical Positions: There are no 2025 positions at this time. Seasonal Analysis: Bearish The spot-month contract closed Friday at $1.9932, its lowest weekly close since $1.9082 the week of August [...]
Weekly Analysis: Live Cattle
Theoretical Positions: Cash cattle can continue to be sold when ready. Seasonal Analysis: Bullish The June contract tends to trend down from the third weekly close of February through the [...]
Weekly Analysis: Feeder Cattle
Theoretical Positions: Cash sales could continue to be made given the strength in futures, cash, and basis markets. Seasonal Analysis: Bullish The August 2025 issue remains in a strong seasonal [...]
Weekly Analysis: Lean Hogs
Theoretical Positions: Producers can continue to sell cash hogs when ready to take advantage of the contra-seasonal rally in futures (see below). Seasonal Analysis: Bearish June lean hogs tend to [...]
Weekly Analysis: Wheat HRW
Theoretical Positions: Producers might’ve locked in a small part of expected 2025 production near the weekly close of $6.3375 (February 21) based on the completion of a bearish spike reversal [...]
Weekly Analysis: Wheat SRW
Theoretical Positions: The July issue could’ve been sold near the weekly close of $6.17 (February 21) based on a bearish spike reversal on the contract’s weekly chart (slide 2). Seasonal [...]
Weekly Analysis: Wheat HRS
Theoretical Positions: Attention will be turning to opportunities in the new-crop market, starting with the September 2025 futures contract. The Sept25 issue closed Friday at $6.2250, up 1.5 cents for [...]
Weekly Analysis: Soybeans
Theoretical Positions: It’s possible some sales of Nov25 were made as the contract took out its previous 4-week low of $10.3725 (possible sale of $10.37). Producers are sitting on the [...]