Weekly Analysis: Live Cattle
Theoretical Positions: Based on previous low implied volatility readings, put options have likely been bought. Implied volatility has since increased with June showing 16.4% at Friday’s close. Given this, cash [...]
Weekly Analysis: Feeder Cattle
Theoretical Positions: Cash sales could continue to be made. At the money May $285 puts could’ve been bought near the previous Friday’s closes of $6.25, putting the floor near $278. [...]
Weekly Analysis: Lean Hogs
Theoretical Positions: Producers may hold off on making new cash sales given the June contract completed a bullish spike reversal on its weekly chart. This would seem to confirm a [...]
Weekly Analysis: Wheat HRW
Theoretical Positions: Producers might’ve locked in a small part of expected 2025 production near the weekly close of $6.3375 (February 21) based on the completion of a bearish spike reversal [...]
Weekly Analysis: Wheat SRW
Theoretical Positions: The July issue could’ve been sold near the weekly close of $6.17 (February 21) based on a bearish spike reversal on the contract's weekly chart. Seasonal Analysis: Bullish, [...]
Weekly Analysis: Wheat HRS
Theoretical Positions: Attention will be turning to opportunities in the new-crop market, starting with the September 2025 futures contract. The Sept25 issue closed last Friday at $6.4050 putting it in [...]
Weekly Analysis: Soybeans
*As I was putting together Weekly Analysis I saw the headline China had increased its retaliatory tariffs against US products, including soybeans, to 125%. What will this do to markets [...]
Weekly Analysis: Soybean Meal
Theoretical Positions: End users looking to get coverage in place could’ve bought December 2024 futures near the weekly close of $315.70 (week of August 26). Winter quarter (remaining Dec, Jan [...]
Weekly Analysis: Canola
Theoretical Positions: 2024 production has likely been sold at this point. Initial sales of new-crop could be made near the recent weekly close of $641.50 based on the completion of [...]
Weekly Analysis: Cotton
Theoretical Positions: Producers: Dec tends tor rally from the last weekly close of March through the fourth weekly close of May (see below) Traders: Investment traders are likely on the [...]
Weekly Analysis: Corn (New-Crop)
Theoretical Positions: Investors (See Monthly Analysis) One change from last week is the short short-dated new-crop May $4.40 put options were bought back for 0.5 cent (Friday, April 11) Hedgers [...]
Weekly Analysis: Corn (Old-Crop)
Theoretical Positions: End-users: Fall 2024 (roughly 3 months, or September/October/November) needs could’ve been covered near the weekly settlement for the National Corn Index of $3.6850 (Dec24 futures at $4.01) the [...]
Weekly Analysis: Gold
Theoretical Positions: Traders are likely long cash, futures, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). While funds continue to liquidate their net-long futures position, hedgers (both long and short) will continue to [...]
Weekly Analysis: Crude Oil
Theoretical Positions: Traders are likely on the sidelines given the market’s contra-seasonal downtrend and continued backwardation of its forward curve (see below). Seasonal Analysis: Bearish Seasonally, the spot-month WTI contracts [...]
Weekly Analysis: Diesel Fuel
Theoretical Positions: 2024 needs might’ve been covered based on the change in long-term trend at the end of June 2023 (see Monthly Analysis). The spot-month contract was priced near $2.41. [...]
Weekly Analysis: Wheat HRW
Theoretical Positions: Producers might’ve locked in a small part of expected 2025 production near the recent weekly close of $6.3375. (Realistically, I know how difficult this is to do.) Given [...]
Weekly Analysis: Wheat SRW
Theoretical Positions: The July issue could’ve been sold near the recent weekly close of $6.17 with a stop above $6.3350. The July 2025 issue closed last Friday at $5.4275, unchanged [...]
Weekly Analysis: Wheat HRS
Theoretical Positions: Attention will be turning to opportunities in the new-crop market, starting with the September 2025 futures contract. The Sept25 issue closed last Friday at $6.10 putting it in [...]
Weekly Analysis: Soybeans
Theoretical Positions: It’s possible some sales of Nov25 were made as the contract took out its previous 4-week low of $10.3725 (possible sale of $10.37). Nov25 closed last Friday at [...]
Weekly Analysis: Soybean Meal
Theoretical Positions: End users looking to get coverage in place could’ve bought December 2024 futures near the weekly close of $315.70 (week of August 26). Winter quarter (remaining Dec, Jan [...]
Weekly Analysis: Canola
Theoretical Positions: 2024 production has likely been sold at this point. Initial sales of new-crop could be made near the recent weekly close of $641.50 based on the completion of [...]
Weekly Analysis: Live Cattle
Theoretical Positions: Based on previous low implied volatility readings, put options have likely been bought. Implied volatility has since increased with June showing 16.4% at Friday’s close. Given this, cash [...]
Weekly Analysis: Feeder Cattle
Theoretical Positions: Cash sales could continue to be made. At the money May $285 puts could've been bought near the previous Friday's closes of $6.25, putting the floor near $278. [...]
Weekly Analysis: Lean Hogs
Theoretical Positions: Cash hogs could continue to be sold. Technically, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down and in line with seasonal studies (see below). Seasonal Analysis: June lean hogs tend [...]
Weekly Analysis: Cotton
Theoretical Positions: Producers: Dec tends tor rally from the last weekly close of March through the fourth weekly close of May (see below) Traders: Investment traders are likely on the [...]