February Newsletter
January was quite a month. I won’t go so far as to call it “extraordinary” because much of what we saw has become “ordinary”. Still, the commonness of the events, [...]
January was quite a month. I won’t go so far as to call it “extraordinary” because much of what we saw has become “ordinary”. Still, the commonness of the events, [...]
December Corn: December futures completed bullish spike reversals during August 2024 and 2025. It’s likely Dec25 established the high-end of a potential major (long-term) sideways range back in February at [...]
Live Cattle (Cash Index): The Index continued top rebound during January closing at $235.29, up $6.29 for the month. While it could still be argued the Index is technically bearish, [...]
Cotton (CTY00, Cash Index): The cotton market remains in a major (long-term) sideways-to-down trend. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors remain on the sidelines. Coffee (KCY00, Cash Index): The Index still looks [...]
Brent crude (QA): I don’t see a clear pattern on the market’s long-term monthly chart. The forward curve remains in backwardation indicating the long-term fundamental outlook is bullish. Theoretical Positions: [...]
Gold (Cash Index): Despite the end of January's extreme selloff, the Index remains in a major (long-term) uptrend. The Gold Index hit a high. of $5,595.02 before closing the month [...]
The S&P 500 ($INX) extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of 7,002.28 before closing January at 6,939.03, up 93.53 (1.4%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are still [...]
The US dollar index ($DXY) continued to weaken during January, hitting a low of 95.55 late in the month before rallying to close at 96.99, still down 1.33 from the [...]
As 2026 gets under way, I want to take a moment to summarize some of what I talked about in Monthly Analysis and take a look ahead at what the [...]
December Corn: December futures completed bullish spike reversals during August 2024 and 2025. It’s likely Dec25 established the high-end of a potential major (long-term) sideways range back in February at [...]
This analysis is making an assumption the Cash Indexes reflect the actual cash markets. Live Cattle (Cash Index): The Index rebounded during December, closing at $229, up $14 for the [...]
The US dollar index ($DXY): From a technical point of view, I don't know what to make of the US dollar index at the end of 2025. My Market Rule [...]
December Corn: Dec25 completed a bullish spike reversal during August (2024 and 2025). If the market is in a major (long-term) sideways trend, then a move toward the high end [...]
This analysis is making an assumption the Cash Indexes reflect the actual cash markets. Something I’m not sure of at this time. Live Cattle (Cash Index): The Index took out [...]
Cotton (CTY00, Cash Index): The cotton market remains in a major (long-term) sideways trend. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors remain on the sidelines. Coffee (KCY00, Cash Index): The Index still looks [...]
Brent crude (QA): I don’t see a clear pattern on the market’s long-term monthly chart. The forward curve remains in backwardation indicating the long-term fundamental outlook is bullish. Theoretical Positions: [...]
Gold (Cash Index): The Index remains in a major (long-term) uptrend, closing November at $4,219.23, up $216.38 (5.41%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investment traders bought near the October [...]
The S&P 500 ($INX): The Index extended remains in a major (long-term) uptrend, closing November at 6,849.09, up 8.89 (0.13%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely still [...]
The US dollar index ($DXY): The US dollar index looks to be in a major (long-term) sideways to up trend. After posting a low monthly close of 96.75 this past [...]
December Corn: Dec25 completed a bullish spike reversal during August (2024 and 2025). If the market is in a major (long-term) sideways trend, then a move toward the high end [...]
This analysis is making an assumption the Cash Indexes reflect the actual cash markets. Something I'm not sure of at this time. Live Cattle (Cash Index): The Index has a [...]
Brent crude (QA): I don’t see a clear pattern on the market’s long-term monthly chart. The forward curve is in backwardation through the May 2026 contract. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors [...]
Gold (Cash Index): The Index extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $4,381.21 during October before closing the month at $4,002.85, up $144.34 (3.7%) from September. Theoretical Positions: It’s [...]
The US dollar index ($DXY): The US dollar index completed a bullish key reversal during July, confirming a move to a major (long-term) uptrend. Given the main fundamental factor of [...]
The S&P 500 ($INX): The Index extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a new high of 6,920.34 during October before closing at 6,840.20, up 151.74 (2.3%) for the month. Theoretical [...]